In the world of football, statistics can be a tricky thing. They say numbers don’t lie, but my friend used to call them the last resort of scoundrels when it comes to predicting outcomes. Nonetheless, during this international break, avid Premier League fans have had ample time to delve into the data and facts from the initial 11 matches of the season.
Digging deeper, historical data reveals that in 16 out of 33 seasons, the team leading the table after 11 games eventually clinched the title. This means that on 17 occasions, the early pace-setters failed to secure the championship. Interestingly, Arsenal holds the record for five instances of leading after 11 games but missing out on the title, with the most recent occurrence being their own in the 2022/23 season.
Currently, Arsenal holds a four-point advantage over Manchester City, reminiscent of their lead in the 2022/23 season, which City eventually won. While these statistics shouldn’t dictate the final outcome of the current season, they emphasize that an early lead does not guarantee ultimate success in the Premier League.
Notably, teams have overcome deficits at this stage and gone on to win the title, with the furthest gap being eight points, achieved only twice. This underlines that the race is open for the teams currently on 18 points, including Manchester United, who are not to be underestimated.
Manchester United, under Ruben Amorim, now have a favorable run ahead with ten consecutive Premier League fixtures following the conclusion of EFL Cup and European commitments. Despite facing teams with seemingly stronger squads, United’s recent performances, bolstered by key players like Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha, indicate a growing belief in the manager’s tactics and a winning mentality.
Though bookmakers place United at odds of 33-1 to 50-1 for the title, history has shown that overcoming deficits is possible, with Manchester United being a prime example in the past. With an upcoming favorable fixture list, United’s resurgence under Amorim presents an intriguing prospect for those looking to place a bet on the underdogs.
