In what appears to be a significant move, Russia perceives itself as engaged in a conflict with NATO partners. This stance, though not yet manifesting in overt military actions, enables the Kremlin to secure the necessary resources to carry out strategic assaults on NATO defenses and identify vulnerabilities. The ongoing covert warfare by Russia against NATO states in Europe involves disruptive activities such as sabotaging Polish railways, attempting to disrupt undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and executing an increasingly aggressive campaign to target supply chains critical to NATO’s support for Ukraine.
The primary objectives for the Kremlin include imposing higher costs on NATO for aiding Ukraine, disrupting supply chains temporarily, and fostering discord in Western nations. Despite these provocations, Russia has not crossed a threshold that would trigger a military response from NATO. By utilizing third-party proxies, often recruited through social media channels, Russia maintains a level of deniability and flexibility that complicates attribution.
Although the sabotage attacks lack a high level of coordination across Europe, they do not consistently align with the level of military and economic assistance each country provides to Ukraine. While countries like Germany, France, and Poland have faced significant physical attacks due to their support for Ukraine, the UK, despite being a major contributor of aid, has experienced fewer such incidents. This divergence does not necessarily indicate a lack of interest from Russian intelligence services, as highlighted by Defense Secretary John Healey.
Russia’s intelligence networks in Europe suffered setbacks in 2022 when around 400 diplomats linked to the GRU were expelled by European countries. Consequently, Russia is working to rebuild its networks but faces challenges in lacking on-the-ground operatives and relying on local proxies, which introduces additional risks. Despite the current limitations, Russia is expected to adapt and potentially pose a threat to non-military targets across Europe, including the UK.
