Keir Starmer has returned from his trip to the Far East, securing important concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, the trip to Beijing went smoothly for No10. Now, the focus shifts back to domestic matters, particularly the upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.
On February 26, voters in the traditionally Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will select their new MP following Andrew Gwynne’s resignation. The decision to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster by Labour’s governing body is seen as a risky move that some MPs fear could backfire.
There are concerns within the party that losing the by-election could be interpreted as sacrificing a seat to keep Andy Burnham out. However, there is optimism among some Labour members that victory is achievable. Labour MP Karl Turner, critical of the government’s trial reforms, expressed confidence after speaking with deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell about the ground situation.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the by-election, with Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party all potential contenders. The dynamics of the race are complex, with tactical voting playing a crucial role.
Luke Tryl, another polling expert, emphasized that the by-election is primarily a three-way battle between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens. The influence of Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s polarizing impact on the race are significant factors to consider for voters.
Voters who traditionally support left-leaning parties face a dilemma on which party to back to prevent Reform UK from winning. Tactical voting and strategic choices will shape the outcome of the by-election, with uncertainty prevailing until the final results are in.
