Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the first half of 2026, indicating a 3.6% year-over-year increase in overall trade, as per data analyzed by researchers at Statistics Canada. The data, part of a fresh report released by the Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute, showcases the growing trade ties between the two nations. The rise in trade is seen as Canada’s effort to expand its economic horizons amidst strained relations with the U.S.
The total trade in goods between Canada and China reached $66.6 billion in the first six months of 2026, with exports rising by 30% to $21.74 billion year over year. Energy and minerals played a significant role, accounting for 58.4% of domestic exports to China during this period, with energy, particularly crude oil and liquefied propane, witnessing a substantial 81.8% growth. Additionally, exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, including copper ore, increased by 29%.
Bijan Ahmadi, Executive Director of the Canada China Business Council, highlighted that the first-half export figures to China set a new record. The recent surge in trade is believed to be a result of various factors coming together, despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The warming diplomatic and economic relations between Canada and China following past disputes, such as the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018, have contributed to the recent trade boost. In light of escalating trade tensions with the U.S., Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized the need to diversify trade partners. Carney’s focus on forging new trade agreements with other countries aligns with the current trade dynamics.
The Trans Mountain Pipeline achieving 97% capacity in June has significantly enhanced Asia’s access to Western Canadian crude oil. This, coupled with disruptions in oil shipments due to global conflicts, has driven customers to seek alternative suppliers like Canada. Furthermore, the unique buying power of China continues to be a major driver of Canada’s export growth.
The trade truce between Canada and China in 2026 marked a pivotal moment in bilateral relations. Agreements between Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping led to increased access for Chinese electric vehicles in the Canadian market and tariff adjustments benefiting Canadian agricultural products.
While the trade numbers reflect positive gains in exports, imports from China have declined by 5.8% year over year, altering the trade deficit dynamics. Despite these fluctuations, the report underlines the importance of diversifying trade partnerships and expanding engagement with growing markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
Looking ahead, Canadian exporters aim to capitalize on the expanding market opportunities in China and the broader Asia-Pacific region. The goal of achieving a 50% increase in exports to China by 2030 seems achievable based on the current trade trajectory, signaling a positive outlook for Canada’s trade relations with China.
