In the previous federal election, discussions in Quebec shifted from defending the province’s interests to protecting Canada against the tariff threats and rhetoric of Donald Trump. On election day, Mark Carney’s Liberals capitalized on this sentiment, achieving their best result in decades and sidelining the Bloc Québécois.
The focus on Quebec identity, secularism, and language was overshadowed by the noise coming from Washington. As the provincial election commences, there are questions about whether the U.S. president will once again play a significant role.
The recently imposed tariffs took center stage in the days leading up to the campaign launch, compelling all party leaders to demonstrate their ability to shield the province from the economic repercussions. Economic stability has become a crucial issue for voters, potentially impacting the ballot box decision, according to polling analyst Philippe Fournier.
Prior to the escalation of the trade war, polls indicated that healthcare, housing, and the cost of living were top concerns for voters. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faces challenges due to discontent among the electorate after two terms in power. The party stands to benefit if economic stability becomes a primary voter priority.
Quebec is expected to be heavily impacted by the new tariffs, particularly due to its reliance on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, as per a report by Oxford Economics.
The leading Parti Québécois (PQ) candidate, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, assured last week that he would postpone any referendum until the end of Trump’s second term. The race has shown signs of tightening, with the ruling CAQ gaining ground against the PQ and Liberals.
CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette, having been in power during the turmoil, announced financial aid programs targeting businesses affected by the tariffs. The CAQ aspires for Fréchette to emulate Carney’s success in reviving an unpopular governing party.
Opponents are challenging the notion that Fréchette is best suited to navigate the current situation. They argue that other parties would be more effective in defending Quebec’s interests and fostering stronger relationships with the federal government and other provinces.
Different parties have presented various proposals, such as Quèbec Solidaire’s $1 billion annual “Trump provision” and the Conservatives’ $47 billion spending cuts and tax relief plan. The ability to reassure the electorate amidst the uncertainties brought by Trump and the tariffs may give a leader an advantage in the election, although the frontrunner is yet to be determined.
