Health authorities combating the Ebola crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing de-identified mobile phone data to track population movements and pinpoint potential areas where the virus might spread next, as per the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers. This innovative strategy, unprecedented in Ebola responses, is being implemented amidst challenges in containing what the WHO has labeled as the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record. With confirmed cases in six provinces and over 6,250 individuals infected, resulting in 3,039 fatalities since the outbreak’s declaration on May 15, the situation remains dire.
This epidemic, Congo’s 17th, is driven by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there are no approved vaccines or treatments. Given the virus’s progression, health officials are keen on preempting potential outbreak sites and directing limited surveillance and response resources effectively. Olivier Le Polain, in charge of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the significance of population movements in the current crisis.
Conventional risk assessments typically concentrate on outbreak epicenters and assume the virus will most likely disseminate to neighboring regions. By analyzing mobility data, responders can pinpoint risks in geographically distant yet closely interlinked locations due to travel patterns. This approach yields a nuanced risk understanding, as exemplified by the situation in Ituri province, where the virus is suspected to have originated.
The analysis, conducted by Swedish non-profit Flowminder, leverages anonymized records from mobile phone connections to estimate travel patterns among individuals. This data, generously provided by Vodacom, the largest telecom operator in Congo, is utilized to predict movement patterns of potentially infectious individuals. Flowminder assures that the data received is aggregated and anonymized, with no access to individual subscriber information.
Initial analysis by Flowminder, published in early June, focused on areas where the outbreak is believed to have commenced, tracking travel patterns in those regions. Subsequent investigations have identified connections between various locations, emphasizing risks of spread to other regions, including Congo’s capital, Kinshasa. As efforts continue to contain the outbreak, steps are being taken to engage other telecom operators for broader coverage and more detailed data analysis.
